Doug Butler will be the first to tell you he’s not a soothsayer. It’s quite possible you’ll find yourself on the receiving end of a stern look and a reprimand should you accuse him of such. It’s safe to say, though, Dr. Butler knows a thing or two about a thing or two As part of American Farriers Journal’s 25th anniversary, Butler drew on his tremendous experiences as a horseman, an educator and a farrier to offer his thoughts about what it might be like to be “Shoeing in 2025.” AFJ is celebrating its golden anniversary in this issue. While he shares more wisdom for the next quarter century on Page 52, let’s look at some of his prognostications from 1999.

Population & Popularity

Horse ownership peaked at 27.5 million in 1910, an increase of more than 600% since 1840. As automobiles became accessible and affordable, the equine population steadily dropped.

“There will be fewer horses by 2025,” Butler wrote, “but the number of serious horse owners will increase.”

Butler’s view proved accurate, albeit one can argue the population held steady. An American Horse Council Foundation (AHCF) study found 6.9 million in the United States in 1999. The numbers dipped by 300,000 in 2023, according to an AHCF survey.

Although Butler couldn’t have predicted COVID-19, the pandemic certainly bolstered his prediction that horse owners would have increased time for equine recreation. An AFJ survey found that 81% of hoof-care clients were riding more during the pandemic. Increased recreation often strengthens…