Doug Butler will be the first to tell you he’s not a soothsayer. It’s quite possible you’ll find yourself on the receiving end of a stern look and a reprimand should you accuse him of such. It’s safe to say, though, Dr. Butler knows a thing or two about a thing or two. As part of American Farriers Journal’s 25th anniversary, Butler drew on his tremendous experiences as a horseman, an educator and a farrier to offer his thoughts about what it might be like to be “Shoeing in 2025.” AFJ is celebrating its golden anniversary in this issue. While he shares more wisdom for the next quarter century on Page 52, let’s look at some of his prognostications from 1999.
Population & Popularity
Horse ownership peaked at 27.5 million in 1910, an increase of more than 600% since 1840. As automobiles became accessible and affordable, the equine population steadily dropped.
“There will be fewer horses by 2025,” Butler wrote, “but the number of serious horse owners will increase.”
Butler’s view proved accurate, albeit one can argue the population held steady. An American Horse Council Foundation (AHCF) study found 6.9 million in the United States in 1999. The numbers dipped by 300,000 in 2023, according to an AHCF survey.
Although Butler couldn’t have predicted COVID-19, the pandemic certainly bolstered his prediction that horse owners would have increased time for equine recreation. An AFJ survey found that 81% of hoof-care clients were riding more during the pandemic. Increased recreation often strengthens human-animal bonds.
“Horses will be kept by one owner longer, usually until death,” Butler wrote, “and treated as members of the family rather than working partners.” A 2017 American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA) Pet Ownership & Demographics Survey found that 47% of horse owners consider their horses family members. The same survey showed 42% consider them pets, while 11% view horses as property.
Constant Vigilance
Nearly 20 years before Butler penned “Shoeing in 2025,” the General Assembly allowed the Illinois Horseshoeing Act to sunset after 66 years of regulating farriers in the Land of Lincoln. Yet, licensing and other forms of government involvement remain.
“Constant vigilance will be required to prevent government regulation,” he wrote in 1999. “If I believed that ‘farrier registration’ would improve the standard of performance, I would be for it. I have not seen evidence that this will happen.”
Since then, city, state and federal governments are increasingly involved. While several pieces of federal legislation have been drafted to amend the Horse Protection Act, each has fallen short. However, the United States Department of Agriculture passed a rule that goes into effect in February 2025 that regulates farriery at all competitive horse shows. The AVMA proposed the elimination of the farrier exemption from the Model Veterinary Practice Act in 2019. Just a year later, the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act became law.
Chalk up another for Dr. Butler. He certainly knows a thing or two about a thing or two.
