Since President Donald Trump’s announcement in February, talk of steel and aluminum tariffs has been saturating the news. Reactions to the proclamation and predictions on its impact vary widely depending on who you’re talking to. While it’s impossible to accurately say how a 25% tariff will affect the U.S. economy in the short- or long-term, it’s helpful to look at the facts for a better understanding of the situation.

Where does the U.S. get most of its imported steel & aluminum?

The largest contributor to U.S. steel and aluminum imports is Canada. Based on available data through the Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration, the top three steel imports come from Canada, Brazil and Mexico, with Canada leading imports by a combined total of nearly 29.5 million metric tons over Brazil since 2010. Canada is also the driving force behind aluminum imports, with total imported metric tons since 2010 nearly 2.5 times the next four countries combined — China, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and Germany.

How much steel is exported vs. imported?

Overall, the U.S. imports more than it exports, but domestic steel production accounts for most U.S. steel usage. The International Trade Administration reports the U.S. imported just over 25.5 million metric tons of steel in 2023. In the same year, the U.S. exported roughly 8 million metric tons of steel — as of 2023, most steel products are exported to either Mexico or Canada. In total, the U.S. produced 81.4 million metric tons of steel in 2023, which wasn’t enough to meet apparent consumption, or demand. The chart below compares U.S. production volume to demand (apparent consumption) and import volume, with production and import volume combined satisfying demand. The International Trade Administration notes that demand has consistently exceeded production since 2015.

Total aluminum imports for 2024 totaled nearly 5.5 million metric tons, while exports amounted to nearly 4.5 million metric tons.

What is the current U.S. economic output of steel?

For 2023, net income for six major steel producers — Carpenter Technology, Commercial Metals Company, Nucor, Cleveland Cliffs, Steel Dynamics and U.S. Steel — totaled $9.18 billion. The top three sources were Nucor, Cleveland Cliffs and U.S. Steel. According to Congress, 90% of the iron ore used in steel production is sources from Michigan and Minnesota.

A study by the American Iron and Steel Institute found that U.S. iron and steel production accounted for more than $520 billion in output and employed nearly two million people in 2017.

How will tariffs impact the U.S. economy?

While the long-term goal is to strengthen the U.S. steel and aluminum industries, the short-term impact will likely mean increased prices down the board for internationally sourced products, especially those from Canada, Brazil and Mexico. Canada recently announced a 25% reciprocal tariff on steel and aluminum products. As close trade partners, Canada and the U.S. may both feel the effects.

Outside of shoes, nails and other day-to-day farrier supplies, other products like tools, computers and building materials may see price tags go up.

What’s your opinion?

A recent American Farriers Journal poll asked equine-industry professionals their opinions on tariffs. Farriers are split on how significantly the price of steel and aluminum will change in the next year, with roughly ⅓ expecting a moderate increase, ⅓ expecting a mild increase and the remaining third expecting a significant increase.

Overall, hoofcare providers expect tariffs to have a medium impact (47%) on their business, meaning that some cost-saving measures or price increases might need to be made to accommodate the cost of supplies. About ⅓ of respondents anticipate tariffs to have a high impact, meaning significant price increases or cost-saving measures will be made.

Nearly 60% of farriers use a mix of domestic and international products, while only 9% cite purchasing American-made only. Another 20% are unsure where most purchased steel and aluminum originates.

Farriers responded to the poll with a mix of support and criticism. Many say that they’ll simply pass any extra costs off to their customers. One farrier said they may have to take on an extra horse to accommodate changing costs, while another said horse owners may be the ones needing to cut costs.

More insights from this survey will appear in the May/June 2025 issue of American Farriers Journal. In the meantime, take the survey and leave your own thoughts there or in the comments below.